Private Circulation · SpeedPRO, Sectional & Pace Analysis

Sha Tin
Professional Race Analysis

Twilight meeting · Mixed turf & AWT programme · SpeedPRO, sectionals & pace mapping · Eleven-race card

Saturday 04 July 2026 Course C+3 Turf: GOOD AWT: WET SLOW

Meeting Overview

Track & Conditions

Twilight Sha Tin on the C+3 course with a mixed programme. Turf is rated GOOD (penetrometer 2.73) with no rainfall since 9:00am — treat the grass as a genuinely fair surface. Warm and humid (28.6°C, 88.4% humidity, 22.3% soil moisture); wind is light S/SSW at 4–8 km/h and not a factor either way.

The Wet-Slow AWT

The dirt is the bigger story: AWT rated WET SLOW (Clegg 8.27). Upgrade proven all-weather performers with strong fitness and kickback tolerance. The surface rewards stamina, strength and rhythm — horses relying on one sharp sprint, and first-time AWT runners, are marked down in R3 and R6.

The C+3 Angle

Fair turf track, but draw and early positioning still matter around the bends. Low-to-middle draws save ground; wide gates aren't automatic negatives but need early speed to cross or a rider who finds cover. Best profile: tactical speed, settles midfield or better, proven at Sha Tin on Good, and can quicken from the 400m.

Strongest Plays

The cleanest map-and-data profiles on the card: R1 Jedi Spurs (best speed profile, map and draw), R4 Rising Force (most consistent Class 2 sprint form), R10 Superb Spirit (best SpeedPRO energy at +4 with Purton) and R11 Chill Easy (104 SpeedPRO, +5) headline, with R2 Verbier and R3 Viva Chaleur the map anchors early.

Meeting Strategy

Build the card around the map-controlled races early — Jedi Spurs (R1), Verbier (R2) and Viva Chaleur (R3) all project to lead or control from good gates. On the wet-slow AWT, side with proven surface horses (Bustling City, Speedy Smartie, Pejibaye in R6) over one-run sprinters. In the Class 3 features, Superb Spirit (R10) and Chill Easy (R11) are the standout figures horses, but both carry a question — grade rise and draw 14 respectively — so protect them with the named dangers in exotics. Watch the two veterinary flags: Sky Trust (R4) and Robot Star (R5).

Race 1

The Purves Quaich Plate

Race1

The Purves Quaich Plate

★★★★★Confidence · Medium-High

Griffin Race1200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads

1Jedi Spurs

Handy / Stalking

9Quantum Wukong2Almighty Warrior8Ever Wealth

Back / Wide

3Chancheng Sparkle10Ultra Bolt

Jedi Spurs should control this from barrier 1 — he led throughout on debut and the Speed Map confirms him in front. Quantum Wukong gets a beautiful stalk from gate 5, Almighty Warrior is economical along the rail from 2, and Ever Wealth can be positive from 7 with a little work. The wide-drawn Chancheng Sparkle and Ultra Bolt may be forced back early, which is not ideal over 1200m on the C+3.

Main Contenders

JEDI SPURS Top Pick

The clear top pick. His debut 1000m win was very strong — led, quickened, and kept going through the line — and he owns the best average sectional speed in the field with strong numbers from the 600m home. The only question is the step from 1000m to 1200m, but the way he finished suggests the extra 200m is manageable. Barrier 1 is perfect: he leads or controls the rail.

Draw: 1 · best speed profile, best map, best draw · lightly raced

Sect avg 64.47 km/hProfile Best in field

ALMIGHTY WARRIOR Main Danger

The main danger. Already proven at the trip — 2nd by a short head over 1200m on 31 May — and barrier 2 gives him the ideal soft run behind the speed. Not as explosive as Jedi Spurs, but he is the one waiting to pounce if the favourite feels the extra 200m late.

Draw: 2 · proven 1200m form · lacks the same sharp acceleration

QUANTUM WUKONG Next Best

Very solid profile. Beaten clearly by Jedi Spurs over 1000m last time, but the better angle is his 4th over 1200m from a bad draw — and today he gets a much better barrier 5. Maps well, should sit close enough without being trapped wide; just needs to find improvement to turn the tables.

Draw: 5 · consistent, tactical, better gate today

EVER WEALTH Frame Chance

Interesting place/finishing chance with early speed and a 3rd over 1200m on the record. The concern is greenness — he laid in and made contact last time. From barrier 7 he needs Atzeni to slot in without burning energy; if he relaxes he can run into the first four.

Draw: 7 · Atzeni · still a little raw

CHANCHENG SPARKLE Manners Query

Ran second behind Jedi Spurs but was beaten clearly, now has barrier 9 and carries the note about hanging out under pressure. He has ability, but the draw and manners make him the least reliable of the main names.

Draw: 9 · hangs out under pressure

Betting Verdict

Win

1Jedi Spurs

Value

9Quantum Wukong

Danger

2Almighty Warrior

Best Place

8Ever Wealth

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Jedi Spurs
Main Dangers	Almighty Warrior / Quantum Wukong
Quartet (main)	1 - 2 - 9 - 8
Quartet (box)	1 / 2 / 9 / 8 / 3

1JEDI SPURS Speed + map + draw2ALMIGHTY WARRIOR Proven 1200m

Predicted Finish1Jedi Spurs→2Almighty Warrior→9Quantum Wukong→8Ever Wealth→3Chancheng Sparkle

Race 2

The Swaine Cup

Race2

The Swaine Cup

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 5 · Rating 40-01200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads

5Verbier

Handy / Trailing

7Blue Baron11Mr Good Vibes9Noble Fans

Back / Wide

2Peridot12Multidutch8Sparkle And Gold

Verbier is the natural leader from barrier 1 — he has already shown he can roll forward and control a race. Blue Baron gets the dream trail from draw 2, with Mr Good Vibes and Noble Fans economical just behind. Peridot has Bowman but draw 12 is awkward; he may be forced back and need luck or tempo. If Verbier gets cheap sectionals in front, it becomes very difficult for the backmarkers.

Main Contenders

VERBIER Top Pick

The one they all have to beat. Barrier 1, Moreira, and the right race shape, backed by strong recent form (last six: 1/3/7/4/3/9) — he led all the way last start. The concern is the +8 rating rise, so he is not as well treated as before, but in this field the map advantage is very strong. He can lead, control, and kick.

Draw: 1 · Moreira · up 8 in the ratings

BLUE BARON Main Danger

The main danger. Best sectional average in the race, and from barrier 2 he gets the perfect run right behind Verbier. He may not have the same winning profile, but if the leader feels the rating rise late, Blue Baron is the one most likely to pounce.

Draw: 2 · stalks the leader · may need Verbier to come back to him

Sect avg 61.72 km/hProfile Best in race

SUPREME WINNER Value

Very interesting. Already a Sha Tin 1200m Class 5 winner, positive SpeedPRO, and only 123 lbs — a real weight advantage on the topweights. Barrier 7 is not perfect but not terrible; if Badel slots him midfield with cover he finishes strongly.

Draw: 7 · Badel · light weight, proven C&D

PERIDOT Draw Against

Has to be respected on ability — Bowman rides and the sectional profile is solid — but barrier 12 is the big issue, and the recent incident note (head up, lost ground, awkward around the turn) means he is not the safest horse here. Frame chance needing plenty to go right.

Draw: 12 · Bowman · can be awkward

VIGOR ELEGANT Trust Issue

Can run better than his recent figures suggest from barrier 6, sitting handy or midfield — but a messy history of incidents and veterinary notes means he cannot be fully trusted. Exotics only.

Draw: 6 · history of incidents

Betting Verdict

Win

5Verbier

Value

10Supreme Winner

Danger

7Blue Baron

Best Place

2Peridot

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Verbier
Main Dangers	Blue Baron / Supreme Winner
Quartet (main)	5 - 7 - 10 - 2
Quartet (box)	5 / 7 / 10 / 2 / 4

5VERBIER Map + rail + Moreira7BLUE BARON Best sectionals

Predicted Finish5Verbier→7Blue Baron→10Supreme Winner→2Peridot→4Vigor Elegant

Race 3

The Wong Cup Handicap

Race3

The Wong Cup Handicap

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 5 · Rating 40-01200mAWT · WET SLOW

Pace Map & Position

Leads

12Viva Chaleur

Handy / Close

3Noble Deluxe11Macanese Master8Happy Action

Back / Wide

4Robot Knight?Full Of Laughter?Gimme Five

The Speed Map says Viva Chaleur can lead from draw 5 without much pure pressure inside him. Noble Deluxe trails, Macanese Master sits handy, Happy Action midfield with a finish. Robot Knight has ability but draw 10 means early work, and the widest runners probably need luck after going back. On the wet-slow AWT, proven surface horses and sustained finishers are upgraded.

Main Contenders

VIVA CHALEUR Top Pick

The most logical horse in the race. Draw 5, good early speed, and the map says he leads without trouble. His AWT 1200m form is very strong — won 01/04, then 2nd behind Noble Deluxe (19/04) and 2nd behind Robot Knight (06/05). He keeps meeting the right horses and keeps running well. Atzeni rides.

Draw: 5 · Atzeni · a few hard races, vulnerable if pressured late

HAPPY ACTION Main Danger

A big danger. Purton rides, he was 3rd behind Robot Knight and Viva Chaleur in the same race on 06/05, and he holds the best SpeedPRO energy difference in the race — the system likes his current setup. Draw 8 is not perfect, but with cover he is very dangerous late.

Draw: 8 · Purton · needs a clean run from midfield

SpeedPRO +4Rank Best in race

ROBOT KNIGHT Last-Start Winner

Beat Viva Chaleur over this exact course and distance last time, so he must be respected, and the apprentice claim helps. The problem is barrier 10 — he may have to work early — and the past note about being sluggish and ridden along means he is not completely straightforward.

Draw: 10 · apprentice claim · early pressure risk

MACANESE MASTER Frame

Best sectional average in the race and already proven over this track and trip — 2nd behind Viva Chaleur on 01/04, 4th behind Robot Knight on 06/05. Not the flashiest, but consistent enough for the frame despite draw 9.

Draw: 9 · reliable AWT form

Sect avg 61.98 km/hRank Best in race

NOBLE DELUXE Bounce-Back?

Dangerous if he rebounds — he beat Viva Chaleur on 19/04 and keeps Bowman and Size — but the latest run was poor and the "roarer" note is a concern. In the mix, but below the main four.

Draw: — · Bowman/Size · roarer note

Betting Verdict

Win

12Viva Chaleur

Value

11Macanese Master

Danger

8Happy Action

Best Place

4Robot Knight

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Viva Chaleur
Main Dangers	Happy Action / Robot Knight
Quartet (main)	12 - 8 - 4 - 11
Quartet (box)	12 / 8 / 4 / 11 / 3

12VIVA CHALEUR Map + C&D form8HAPPY ACTION SpeedPRO +4 · Purton

Predicted Finish12Viva Chaleur→8Happy Action→4Robot Knight→11Macanese Master→3Noble Deluxe

Race 4

The Li Cup Handicap

Race4

The Li Cup Handicap

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 2 · Rating 100-701200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Forward / Press

5Turquoise Velocity4Rising Force6Pakistan Legacy

Handy / Behind Speed

1Sky Trust3Young Champion

Midfield

2Mugen7So Naive

This should be run at a genuine tempo. Turquoise Velocity holds a forward/rail spot from draw 2, Rising Force presses from 5, Pakistan Legacy shows speed, and Sky Trust from gate 1 can sit right behind them. The setup suits a horse who travels just off the speed rather than one dragged into a speed battle.

Main Contenders

RISING FORCE Top Pick

The most reliable profile. His recent Class 2 1200m form is the strongest here — 2nd at Sha Tin on 12/04 beaten a nose, 2nd at Happy Valley 20/05, and 5th on 07/06 beaten only about 1.25L. Purton rides, the SpeedPRO figure is strong, and his sectionals are very balanced: he can travel close enough without needing to lead.

Draw: 5 · Purton · needs the right run if the pace gets messy

TURQUOISE VELOCITY Main Danger

Very dangerous. Best average sectional figure in the field, and draw 2 lets him control the inside — the map sees him forward. The question is early pressure: if he gets an easy lead or a soft sit, he is very hard to catch; if Rising Force and Pakistan Legacy soften him up, he is vulnerable.

Draw: 2 · speed, draw and sectionals all align

Sect avg 62.87 km/hRank Best in field

YOUNG CHAMPION Time Reference

A serious player. Won strongly over Sha Tin 1200m on 29/03 in 1:07.74 — the best winning-time reference in this field — then ran 3rd behind Rising Force on 12/04 and was not far away on 07/06. Bowman + Size is a strong combination; draw 6 just means the run may not be perfectly economical.

Draw: 6 · Bowman/Size · 1:07.74 reference

SKY TRUST Vet Flag

Class horse — top rating, draw 1, Moreira — and on pure ability he must be respected. But after his 31/05 run he had substantial blood in the trachea and was noted as a roarer. He has passed the official exam, yet with top weight as well he is the least straightforward of the main chances.

Draw: 1 · Moreira · respiratory concern + top weight

Betting Verdict

Win

4Rising Force

Value

3Young Champion

Danger

5Turquoise Velocity

Best Place

1Sky Trust

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Rising Force
Main Dangers	Turquoise Velocity / Young Champion
Quartet (main)	4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Quartet (box)	4 / 5 / 3 / 1 / 2

4RISING FORCE Most consistent C2 form5TURQUOISE VELOCITY Best sectionals

Predicted Finish4Rising Force→5Turquoise Velocity→3Young Champion→1Sky Trust→2Mugen

Race 5

The Arculli Trophy Handicap

Race5

The Arculli Trophy Handicap

★★★★★Confidence · Medium

Class 4 · Rating 60-401400mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Forward

2M M Concord12Let's Have Fun8Decision Link

Midfield

5Sunny Da Best1Robot Star11Graceful Heart

Back / Wide

13Quick Contribution3Rising From Ashes

Not a crazy speed race. M M Concord can use draw 1 to lead or sit right on speed without spending anything. The forward types from wide gates — Decision Link, Let’s Have Fun, Quick Contribution — need to work early, and Rising From Ashes from 13 likely drops back. The shape favours handy/midfield horses producing a sustained run.

Main Contenders

M M CONCORD Top Pick

Very interesting from draw 1. Last start he was 4th in a Class 3 1400m — a stronger grade than this — and back in Class 4 from the inside gate he gets a much better map: a soft lead or the box seat. He carries more weight now and his late profile is not the strongest, but tactically the setup is beautiful.

Draw: 1 · class drop C3→C4 · vulnerable late if strong closers arrive

DECISION LINK Main Danger

A big player. Moreira, Fownes, and solid 1400m form — his 2nd on 19/04 over this trip was good, and the wide/no-cover excuse makes the 1600m run forgivable. Draw 10 is not perfect, but the map suggests he can still find a forward spot; one-off with cover, he is right there.

Draw: 10 · Moreira/Fownes · genuine excuse last run

SUNNY DA BEST Balanced Profile

One of the better sectional profiles in the race and past Class 3 form over 1400m, including a good 3rd on 29/03. From draw 6 he gets a fair run without being too far back — enough class, enough speed, workable draw. He just needs to reproduce his better form.

Draw: 6 · Class 3 reference

Sect avg 61.49 km/hForm C3-tested

ROBOT STAR Data Strong, Vet Flag

On raw SpeedPRO one of the strongest here, with a 2nd over this course and distance in April, and P N Wong’s claim eases the top weight. But the veterinary note after his last run — substantial blood in the trachea — plus 69 days off make him less clean as a confidence pick.

Draw: — · apprentice claim · 69 days + vet note

QUICK CONTRIBUTION Purton Watch

Purton is the obvious attraction, he is light in the handicap, and SpeedPRO gives him a positive energy difference. But draw 12 is awkward: forward risks being trapped wide, back needs luck.

Draw: 12 · Purton · trip-dependent

Betting Verdict

Win

2M M Concord

Value

5Sunny Da Best

Danger

8Decision Link

Best Place

1Robot Star

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	M M Concord
Main Dangers	Decision Link / Sunny Da Best
Quartet (main)	2 - 8 - 5 - 1
Quartet (box)	2 / 8 / 5 / 1 / 13

2M M CONCORD Class drop + draw 18DECISION LINK Moreira · forgiven run

Predicted Finish2M M Concord→8Decision Link→5Sunny Da Best→1Robot Star→13Quick Contribution

Race 6

The Chan Trophy Handicap

Race6

The Chan Trophy Handicap

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 4 · Rating 60-401200mAWT · WET SLOW

Pace Map & Position

Leads

7Bustling City

On-Pace / Handy

1Pejibaye2Speedy Smartie11Day Day Victory3Natural High

Midfield / Back

4Good Chap8Daily Fun9E Ho Ho

The Speed Map is very important here. Bustling City looks the natural leader from draw 4 — early speed, trialled well on this surface, and should cross to the rail. Pejibaye and Speedy Smartie like to be positive but are drawn wider; Speedy Smartie from 10 may need to work early. The race favours leader / on-pace / just-behind-speed types. Deep closers struggle unless the leaders overdo it.

Main Contenders

BUSTLING CITY Top Pick

The one to like most from the race setup. Draw 4, early speed, and the best sectional average in the field, with strong 600m/400m/200m splits — he sustains speed rather than jumping and stopping. The first-time hood and tongue tie is interesting if it helps him relax. Tactically, a beautiful chance on the wet-slow surface.

Draw: 4 · likely leader · gear change · SpeedPRO +2

Sect avg 62.72 km/hSpeedPRO +2

SPEEDY SMARTIE Form Horse

The strongest overall form profile — last six reads 2/3/2/2/1/2 — with a strong AWT reference, 2nd over this course and distance on 01/04 in a good time. SpeedPRO likes him most in the race and his sectionals are very solid. The only real issue: draw 10 and top weight; if Teetan works early to cross, it could cost him late.

Draw: 10 · Teetan · top weight

SpeedPRO +4Form 2/3/2/2/1/2

PEJIBAYE Big Danger

Moreira/Fownes is a big combination, and he arrives off a strong 2nd over this same AWT 1200m setup, beaten only ¾L. Enough speed to sit handy, respectable sectionals. Draw 8 is not perfect, but Moreira can find a spot without panicking — he just must avoid an early speed battle.

Draw: 8 · Moreira/Fownes · last-start AWT 2nd

DAY DAY VICTORY Sneaky Improver

The sneaky runner. Last time was much better than the finishing position — trouble, only clear late, then went on strongly. Good sectionals, draw 3 for a cleaner run, and light in the handicap. Could improve sharply if the inside run opens.

Draw: 3 · forgive last run · light weight

Sect avg 62.44 km/hTrip Needs luck

GOOD CHAP Place Type

A good AWT 1200m reference (3rd on 06/05), draw 7 is fine, and Atzeni knows him. His final sectionals are not as strong as the main chances, so he reads as more of a place profile.

Draw: 7 · Atzeni · place profile

Betting Verdict

Win

7Bustling City

Value

11Day Day Victory

Danger

2Speedy Smartie

Best Place

1Pejibaye

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Bustling City
Main Dangers	Speedy Smartie / Pejibaye
Quartet (main)	7 - 2 - 1 - 11
Quartet (box)	7 / 2 / 1 / 11 / 4

7BUSTLING CITY Map + best sectionals2SPEEDY SMARTIE Best form + SpeedPRO

Predicted Finish7Bustling City→2Speedy Smartie→1Pejibaye→11Day Day Victory→4Good Chap

Race 7

The Stevenson Cup Handicap

Race7

The Stevenson Cup Handicap

★★★★★Confidence · Medium

Class 4 · Rating 60-401200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads

3One More

Handy / Stalking

12Riding High2Oneshot6Grouper4A Time For Us

Midfield / Back

5Healthy Healthy1Run Run Sunrise

One More should lead from draw 4, Riding High trails from gate 1, and Oneshot gets a very good tactical spot from 3. Grouper can sit handy but draw 8 is slightly awkward. Not a crazy tempo, yet enough early pace to test weak finishers — the winning profile is box-seat / handy / just-behind-speed with a late quicken.

Main Contenders

ONESHOT Top Pick

The cleanest map in the race: draw 3, Karis Teetan, and a likely stalking position behind the speed, plus a new-trainer angle that can wake a horse up. His last run was disappointing but the post-race check showed no major issue. With the ideal draw and position, he gets a proper chance to improve.

Draw: 3 · Teetan · new trainer · SpeedPRO +1

GROUPER Main Danger

Purton rides, which immediately makes him important. Enough tactical speed to sit close, a good forward spot on the map, and a solid SpeedPRO number — more reliable than most in this field. Draw 8 means a little work to slot in, but with cover he is a big chance.

Draw: 8 · Purton · SpeedPRO +1

RUN RUN SUNRISE Best Engine

Best sectional profile in the race, with strong mid-race and late speed — the engine to finish over the top of them. The problem is the setup: top weight of 135 lbs and draw 10 mean extra work or a wide trip. Ability-wise right there; tactically he has the most to overcome.

Draw: 10 · 135 lbs · comes wide

Sect avg 63.19 km/hRank Best in race

A TIME FOR US SpeedPRO Horse

SpeedPRO likes him most in the field and draw 6 is workable for a handy/midfield spot. His raw sectional average is not as strong as the top engines, but the race shape suits him better than the wide-drawn runners.

Draw: 6 · shape suits

SpeedPRO +2Rank Best in race

HEALTHY HEALTHY Soft-Run Chance

Draw 2 gives him every chance of a soft run and his sectionals are good enough. The concern is the map note that he has lost some early speed recently, so he may need luck from midfield.

Draw: 2 · needs gaps

Sect avg 62.36 km/hTrip Inside run

Betting Verdict

Win

2Oneshot

Value

1Run Run Sunrise

Danger

6Grouper

Best Place

4A Time For Us

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Oneshot
Main Dangers	Grouper / Run Run Sunrise
Quartet (main)	2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Quartet (box)	2 / 6 / 1 / 4 / 5

2ONESHOT Cleanest map · Teetan6GROUPER Purton · forward run

Predicted Finish2Oneshot→6Grouper→1Run Run Sunrise→4A Time For Us→5Healthy Healthy

Race 8

The Ip Jug Handicap

Race8

The Ip Jug Handicap

★★★★★Confidence · Medium

Class 4 · Rating 60-401800mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads

14Kingly Demeanor

Forward / Press

2Mr Cool9Firefoot5I Excelle8Leaping Star

Economical / Back

12Grand Turbo6Victor Supreme10Smart Fat Cat

Kingly Demeanor is the natural leader and should cross from draw 6. Over 1800m at Sha Tin, wide-drawn horses lose plenty if caught without cover before the first turn — so the winning setups are either inside draw + handy run, or a wide draw with enough speed to cross cleanly. Mr Cool, Firefoot and Smart Fat Cat all have exactly that problem to solve.

Main Contenders

MR COOL Top Pick

The strongest profile in the race — joint-best sectional average, consistent recent form, already close-up over 1800m at Sha Tin, and Teetan rides. The problem is draw 10: he either rolls forward early or must find cover quickly. Caught wide, it gets much harder.

Draw: 10 · Teetan · needs to solve the gate

Sect avg 60.86 km/hRank Joint-best

VICTOR SUPREME Map Horse

Very solid. Draw 4 gives him a far cleaner trip than most of the chances, his sectional average is strong, and he has been consistent over 1600m. The only question is whether he is as effective at 1800m — but from this gate he gets the ideal economical run to prove it.

Draw: 4 · 1800m still to fully prove

Sect avg 60.62 km/hForm Consistent

SMART FAT CAT Best Closer

Ran a strong second over 1800m last time and owns a very good finishing profile — one of the better closers here. But draw 14 is horrible: he probably goes back and needs the race to open up. Ability-wise right there; map-wise, work to do.

Draw: 14 · strong late splits · needs luck

GRAND TURBO Tactical Danger

The interesting one. Recent form does not look pretty, but Purton from draw 1 over 1800m can completely change his race — ground saved all the way and every chance in the straight. Sectionals are below the top trio, but the barrier/jockey setup is very favourable.

Draw: 1 · Purton · form only fair

KINGLY DEMEANOR Loose On The Front?

Likely leader with a light weight — dangerous if gifted a soft lead. The concern is finishing strength: his sectional average and final split are the weakest of the chances, so he can run well yet be vulnerable late.

Draw: 6 · light weight · weak final split

Sect avg 59.30 km/hFinish Vulnerable

Betting Verdict

Win

2Mr Cool

Value

10Smart Fat Cat

Danger

6Victor Supreme

Best Place

12Grand Turbo

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Mr Cool
Main Dangers	Victor Supreme / Smart Fat Cat
Quartet (main)	2 - 6 - 10 - 12
Quartet (box)	2 / 6 / 10 / 12 / 14

2MR COOL Best form + sectionals6VICTOR SUPREME Safest map

Predicted Finish2Mr Cool→6Victor Supreme→10Smart Fat Cat→12Grand Turbo→14Kingly Demeanor

Race 9

The Chow Silver Plate Handicap

Race9

The Chow Silver Plate Handicap

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 4 · Rating 60-401200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads

5Leading Dragon

Rail / Handy

3Lucrative Eight4Mabubu2Sight Dreamer

Back / Wide

1Island Buddy9Origin Of Form10Diamond Sparkle

Leading Dragon has led in most of his races this season and should cross from draw 5 without overworking. Lucrative Eight gets the perfect rail-saving run from gate 1, Mabubu sits handy from 2, Sight Dreamer midfield. Island Buddy has quality but the wide gate is a real negative. The race hinges on whether Leading Dragon controls it — or gets softened up for the closer.

Main Contenders

LEADING DRAGON Top Pick

Narrowly on top with the full picture: best sectional average among the runners with data, plus a strong 60.42 km/h final split — not a pure speed horse who collapses late. He has the map, the tactical speed and a suitable draw. If he controls the pace, he is very hard to catch.

Draw: 5 · likely leader · pressure is the risk

Sect avg 62.30 km/hFinal split 60.42 km/h

LUCRATIVE EIGHT Main Danger

The cleanest race-setup horse: draw 1, Purton, strong recent form, and a sharp 61.45 km/h final split that says he can quicken when the gap comes. The only issue is getting stuck on the rail behind the leader — he needs the gap at the right time.

Draw: 1 · Purton · timing of the run

Sect avg 62.09 km/hFinal split 61.45 km/h

ISLAND BUDDY Class, Bad Gate

Classy and proven against similar horses, with a good enough average to be involved — but his late sections are not as sharp as Lucrative Eight, and draw 10 with top weight means work or a wide trip.

Draw: 10 · top weight

Sect avg 61.47 km/hFinish Not the sharpest

MABUBU Place Profile

Maps beautifully from draw 2 for a soft run, and his overall average is solid — but the final split of 59.09 km/h is the weakness. He travels well and looks a place/near-miss type rather than the strongest winning profile.

Draw: 2 · soft trip · weak final split

Sect avg 61.81 km/hFinal split 59.09 km/h

SIGHT DREAMER Data Doesn’t Scream

Bowman and ability keep him respected, but the sectional average is lower than expected and does not scream winner here. Exotic cover.

Draw: 6 · Bowman

Sect avg 60.92 km/hRead Below main four

Betting Verdict

Win

5Leading Dragon

Value

1Island Buddy

Danger

3Lucrative Eight

Best Place

4Mabubu

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Leading Dragon
Main Dangers	Lucrative Eight / Island Buddy
Quartet (main)	5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Quartet (box)	5 / 3 / 1 / 4 / 2

5LEADING DRAGON Best avg + map3LUCRATIVE EIGHT Purton · best closer

Predicted Finish5Leading Dragon→3Lucrative Eight→1Island Buddy→4Mabubu→2Sight Dreamer

Race 10

The Philip Chen Trophy

Race10

The Philip Chen Trophy

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 31200mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads / Press

4Harmony N Blessed5Red Sea2All Out For Six

Behind Speed

1Perfect General6Superb Spirit

Midfield / Wide

12Spicy Standard9Igor Stravinsky

A good-pressure 1200m. Harmony N Blessed likely tries to lead again, Perfect General can sit right behind the speed from gate 1, Red Sea is on-pace, and All Out For Six likes going forward but draw 9 makes it tricky. The key point: there should be enough speed to give a lovely run to the horses sitting just behind the leaders.

Main Contenders

SUPERB SPIRIT Top Pick

The horse to like most from the full set. Purton, draw 4, only 126 lbs, and the strongest SpeedPRO setup in the race — 103 with the best energy difference. His average is not the highest, but the late splits are excellent (64.85 km/h at the 200m), meaning he can quicken strongly with cover behind the pace. Must prove he belongs in stronger Class 3 company.

Draw: 4 · Purton · 126 lbs · grade test

SpeedPRO 103 · +4200m split 64.85 km/h

PERFECT GENERAL Main Danger

Very solid: draw 1, Moreira, top form line, SpeedPRO 103, and a strong final sectional — not just a front-runner. From gate 1 he gets the economical run, leading without fighting or sitting right behind Harmony N Blessed. The catch: 135 lbs against improving, lighter horses, with his rating rising fast.

Draw: 1 · Moreira · 135 lbs

SpeedPRO 103Final split 61.87 km/h

SPICY STANDARD Lightweight Value

Very interesting at just 120 lbs with the best average sectional speed on the screen and a positive SpeedPRO profile (+2). The type to run a big race if it is run honestly and he gets a clean trip from draw 7 — though he too is meeting stronger Class 3 company.

Draw: 7 · 120 lbs · needs honest tempo

Sect avg 62.34 km/hSpeedPRO +2

HARMONY N BLESSED Map Danger

Dangerous purely on the map — he nearly pulled it off last time and can again try to control the race, with a respectable final split. But he is a veteran with a mixed veterinary history, and if Perfect General, All Out For Six and Red Sea apply pressure, he is vulnerable late.

Draw: — · controls if allowed

Sect avg 62.00 km/hFinal split 61.21 km/h

Betting Verdict

Win

6Superb Spirit

Value

12Spicy Standard

Danger

1Perfect General

Best Place

4Harmony N Blessed

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Superb Spirit
Main Trio	6 Superb Spirit / 1 Perfect General / 12 Spicy Standard
Quartet (main)	6 - 1 - 12 - 4
Quartet (box)	6 / 1 / 12 / 4 / 5

6SUPERB SPIRIT SpeedPRO +4 · Purton1PERFECT GENERAL Dream run gate 1

Predicted Finish6Superb Spirit→1Perfect General→12Spicy Standard→4Harmony N Blessed→5Red Sea

Race 11

The Lee Trophy

Race11

The Lee Trophy

★★★½★Confidence · Medium

Class 31400mTurf · Going GOODCourse C+3

Pace Map & Position

Leads / Forward

7King Miles1Chill Easy

Handy / Rail

6Sonic Liner11Tang Heart8All's Well3Greater Bae

Midfield / Wide

5Endeared13Refusetobeenglish4Savvy Brilliant

This does not look like a strongly run 1400m. King Miles may be asked to lead, Chill Easy can roll forward despite gate 14, and Tang Heart and All’s Well should get soft runs near the rail. With the speed likely controlled, avoid horses ridden too far back unless they own a genuine turn of foot.

Main Contenders

CHILL EASY Top Pick

The obvious top chance on figures. Won over this course and distance last start by 3¾ lengths, and holds the best SpeedPRO number in the race — 104 with +5 energy — plus the best last-12-months figure. The negatives are real: draw 14, top weight of 135, and a sharp rating rise. But if he crosses without burning too much energy, he is the horse to beat.

Draw: 14 · 135 lbs · sharp rating rise

SpeedPRO 104 · +5Last start Won by 3¾L

ENDEARED Rebound Play

Very good bounce-back candidate — the last run is forgiven because he did not appreciate the yielding track. Back on good ground with Bowman and Size, and a strong SpeedPRO profile, he has the right shape to sit midfield and finish. His sectional average is not flashy, so he needs the race to open up properly.

Draw: — · Bowman/Size · good ground rebound

SpeedPRO 101 · +3Excuse Yielding last time

GREATER BAE Inside Sectionals

Very interesting from draw 1: the best sectional average on the screen and a strong finishing split too. From the inside gate he saves ground and gets the perfect economical run. The SpeedPRO energy difference is −1, so on pure energy he trails the top pair — but draw 1 keeps him right in this.

Draw: 1 · economical trip · energy −1

Sect avg 61.87 km/hFinal split 62.45 km/h

ALL'S WELL Cleaner Trip

Good draw, strong SpeedPRO setup, and a soft rail run likely from barrier 2. He had excuses last time after being crowded and held up; with a cleaner trip he improves. He just needs to show he can quicken when the race turns tactical.

Draw: 2 · crowded last time

SpeedPRO 100 · +4Trip Rail run

REFUSETOBEENGLISH Danger

Second-best sectionals on the screen, only 120 lbs, and consistent enough. The problem is draw 11 in a race that may lack tempo — he could be caught wide or forced too far back.

Draw: 11 · 120 lbs · pace-dependent

Sect avg 61.81 km/hRank 2nd best

Betting Verdict

Win

1Chill Easy

Value

3Greater Bae

Danger

5Endeared

Best Place

8All's Well

Suggested Bets

Bet	Structure
Best Bet	Chill Easy
Main Trio	1 Chill Easy / 5 Endeared / 3 Greater Bae
Quartet (main)	1 - 5 - 3 - 8
Quartet (box)	1 / 5 / 3 / 8 / 13

1CHILL EASY SpeedPRO 104 · +53GREATER BAE Best sectionals · gate 1

Predicted Finish1Chill Easy→5Endeared→3Greater Bae→8All's Well→13Refusetobeenglish

Bet Summary

Special Sections

🏆 Strongest Calls Of The Card

R11

JEDI SPURS

Best speed profile, best map, best draw — leads or controls the rail off a dominant debut. Medium-high confidence, the standout of the day.

R44

RISING FORCE

The most consistent recent Class 2 sprint form in the race, Purton up, balanced sectionals — travels close without needing to lead.

R106

SUPERB SPIRIT

Best SpeedPRO energy in the race (103, +4), Purton, draw 4, 126 lbs — and elite late splits to quicken past them.

R25

VERBIER

Rail, Moreira, and the map all his own way in a Class 5 — leads, controls, kicks. The rating rise is the only knock.

R312

VIVA CHALEUR

Proven wet-surface AWT form against exactly these rivals, and the Speed Map hands him the front cheaply.

⭐ Best Bets Of The Card

R11

JEDI SPURS

The anchor. 64.47 km/h average — the best sectional figure anywhere on the card — from the perfect gate.

R67

BUSTLING CITY

Best sectionals in the race, likely leader from draw 4, and the wet-slow AWT rewards exactly his sustained-speed profile.

R95

LEADING DRAGON

Best average and a strong final split — a leader who doesn’t stop. Controls it, wins it.

R111

CHILL EASY

SpeedPRO 104 with +5 energy off a 3¾-length C&D win — the figures horse of the meeting, if he survives gate 14.

💰 Value & Map Angles

R210

SUPREME WINNER

Proven Sha Tin 1200m Class 5 winner at just 123 lbs with a positive SpeedPRO — big weight swing on the topweights.

R52

M M CONCORD

Class-dropper landing draw 1 — a soft lead or the box seat for free in a race with no real tempo.

R611

DAY DAY VICTORY

Unlucky last start and went on strongly once clear — light weight and a much cleaner run from draw 3.

R93

LUCRATIVE EIGHT

Purton from gate 1 with the sharpest final split of the main chances — nails the leader if the gap comes.

R812

GRAND TURBO

Ugly form, gorgeous setup — Purton from draw 1 over 1800m saves ground the whole way.

R113

GREATER BAE

Best sectional average in the race from gate 1 in a slowly-run 1400m — the economical trip nobody else gets.

📉 Wet-Slow AWT & Watch List

AWT rides Wet Slow (R3 & R6)

Stamina, rhythm and kickback tolerance win; one-sprint types and first-time AWT runners are downgraded. Proven surface horses only.

Wide gates over the turning trips

C+3 bends punish wide runs. Peridot (R2, g12), Robot Knight (R3, g10), Smart Fat Cat (R8, g14) and Refusetobeenglish (R11, g11) all need luck or tempo.

Veterinary flags

Sky Trust (R4) and Robot Star (R5) both had substantial blood in the trachea after their last runs. Both passed exams, but neither is a clean confidence pick.

Rating-rise leaders

Verbier (R2, +8) and Chill Easy (R11, sharp rise + 135 lbs) are the right horses at worse marks — win picks, but protect them in exotics.